Zonda’s 2025 master-planned community projections point the market toward Sun Belt growth — what investors should watch

A fresh projection with an old theme: why this matters now

Zonda, the housing data firm, has released its projected rankings for the top-selling master-planned communities in 2025. The news matters because these communities — large, planned neighborhoods that bundle homes, schools and amenities — move lots of materials, labor and capital. When a handful of developments pick up steam, it ripples through public homebuilders, land owners, construction suppliers, and local tax bases.

Investors should read this as more than a real-estate curiosity. Zonda’s list flags where demand, lot supply and development momentum are concentrated. That tells you which regions are hiring builders, which suppliers might win steady work, and which publicly traded companies could see clearer revenue and margin paths if those communities perform as projected.

What the projection shows at a glance: regional concentration and headline themes

Zonda’s projection points to a continued concentration of top-selling master-planned communities in Sun Belt metro areas. The highest-ranked developments are mostly in fast-growing Texas, Florida and parts of the Southwest. That pattern echoes what we’ve seen in recent years: job and population growth shifting demand away from older, high-cost coastal markets.

Key takeaways from Zonda’s snapshot: the leading communities skew toward single-family detached homes with amenity-rich packages, many are extensions of established developments rather than brand-new ground-up projects, and absorption rates in those communities are generally stronger than in more congested coastal metros. Notable movers on the list are communities that expanded lot deliveries or opened new phases this year, translating construction momentum into projected sales velocity.

For investors, the headline is simple: the places where lots are being released and infrastructure is finished are the same places buyers are turning up. That concentrates predictable revenue for builders who control those lots and for REITs and landowners with exposure to finished lot inventory.

Where the numbers come from and what they do — and don’t — prove

Zonda’s rankings rest on a mix of proprietary sales tracking, builder reporting and public permitting and closings data. They combine recent run rates with visible lot pipelines to forecast which master-planned communities will lead next year. That approach gives a useful early read because it sees where homes are actually moving, not just where permits were filed months ago.

But the projection has limits. Forecasts assume steady interest-rate and mortgage conditions and that promised phases will actually be delivered on schedule. Local permitting hiccups, schedule delays, or a sudden credit squeeze for lots or vertical construction would change the outcome. For investors, the list is a directional map, not a guarantee.

What this means for public builders, REITs and suppliers

Public homebuilders that already own lots or joint-venture stakes near the top communities stand to benefit most. Builders with scale in the Sun Belt — for example D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) — tend to move faster when lot supply is available because they can ramp models and marketing across multiple neighborhoods. If Zonda’s leaders perform well, those builders could see steadier absorption and better pricing power in those specific markets.

Housing REITs and specialty lenders that finance lot development or buy-and-sell finished lots also get a clearer earnings runway from concentrated community activity. Suppliers of framing, roofing and mechanicals should see predictable volumes in the winning metros; local subcontractors and materials distributors in those regions will be the ones to watch for margin stability.

On the flip side, builders and suppliers tied to slower or higher-cost markets may face tighter margins if demand continues to favor the Sun Belt. That regional divergence is the investment story Zonda’s projection reinforces: growth is not evenly distributed.

Regional winners and the buyer trends behind them

The projection highlights three regional themes. First, Sun Belt metros keep winning because of net in-migration and more affordable land per household. Second, exurban master-planned communities — those farther from central business districts but with modern amenities — are taking market share from older infill neighborhoods. Third, buyer demand is driven by a mix of first-time move-up purchasers and remote-capable households looking for space, schools and lifestyle packages rather than proximity to a downtown.

Demographics matter: markets with younger household formation and steady job growth show faster absorption. That favors states and metros where employers keep expanding and where local policy supports infrastructure for new phases.

Limits, warning signs and the sensible next moves for investors

Zonda’s rankings give a useful lead indicator, but they should be folded into a broader view. Watch for three risk triggers: shifts in mortgage rates that cool buyer appetite, delays in local permitting or infrastructure that choke lot deliveries, and changes in builder financing that slow construction. Any of those would weaken the projection’s clean path to 2025 sales.

For investors, the practical use of this list is tactical: favor companies and REITs with clear exposure to the regions and communities Zonda highlights, and be cautious about assuming that top-ranked communities guarantee outsized national results. The rankings point to where growth is clustering — and where, if conditions hold, earnings will be steadier. But they are a map for attention, not an automatic buy signal.

Sources

• prnewswire.com