Why 2026 Will Decide Whether Crypto IPOs Are Here to Stay

A clear test is coming — and it matters for portfolios

2025 felt like a dress rehearsal for crypto companies going public. A handful of listings drew attention, trading saw big swings, and bankers quietly took notes. But the real question — can crypto firms sustain broad investor interest and fair trading over time — will be answered in 2026.

Why now? Because the early buzz that lifted prices in the weeks after flotation doesn’t prove a market is durable. The next year will bring when lockups end, token-related incentives kick in, market makers reveal how deep they will go, and regulators move from statement to action. For investors, that means 2026 is the make-or-break period: either these stocks grow into regular, liquid bets you can size into, or they remain volatile, niche plays that demand active hedging.

My read: the setup is mixed. There are real businesses and growing revenue streams behind some names, but structural risks — thin liquidity, token entanglement, and unresolved rule fights — make these listings high-risk. For disciplined investors, 2026 will be a year to pick sides rather than follow broad enthusiasm.

What 2025 taught us: a test run with uneven results

Last year’s crop of crypto-related IPOs gave investors a clear taste of what a public market for these companies looks like. Some listings enjoyed a rapid pop as buyers rushed in, but many faded once the immediate hype cooled. Secondary trading often turned erratic: wide bid-ask spreads, gap moves on thin volume, and repeated headlines tied to token launches rather than revenue beats.

Notable patterns emerged. Listings that leaned on clear, cash-generating services — custody, exchange fees, enterprise software — held value better than ones that promised future token-driven growth. Lockup expiries were a recurring inflection point: insiders selling or releasing tokens tied to equity unlock periods created supply shocks that pushed prices down. And investor reception was split — long-only funds dipped toes, hedge funds and nimble traders supplied most of the early liquidity.

The takeaway from 2025 is simple: headline IPOs proved interest exists, but they did not prove these shares behave like regular, liquid large-cap stocks. That distinction is the one 2026 must resolve.

How listing structure, liquidity and tokens shape real value

Three practical mechanics will determine whether crypto IPOs can trade like mainstream stocks.

First, the product on offer. Pure equity listings — shares that represent traditional corporate ownership — are easier for mainstream buyers to understand and custody. Listings that bundle or reference tokens, token warrants, or revenue share tied to token economics introduce messy linkages. If a stock’s value is linked to a volatile token, many institutional buyers will shy away.

Second, liquidity and market-making. Crypto-related stocks often depend on a few market makers to keep spreads reasonable. If those firms pull back under stress, prices can gap. In 2026, commitments from market makers, the quality of the order book, and whether exchanges incentivize two-way trading will control how safely investors can enter and exit positions.

Third, venue and custody. Where a company lists — a major US exchange, a European market, or a smaller venue — affects who can buy the shares. Custody solutions that keep tokens or token-linked rights separate from the equity will help win institutional flows. Without clear custody paths, demand will remain narrow and price swings sharp.

Put simply: structure matters. A clean equity story with predictable cash flow and reliable market-making is a more attractive, lower-risk entry than a headline-grabbing token play with thin liquidity.

Regulatory crosswinds that could tilt the outcome

Regulators will be a central reason 2026 matters. In the United States, the SEC’s approach to token classification and disclosure during listings will determine which products are feasible for public markets. Expect specific enforcement actions and rule clarifications that test whether certain token-linked rights can trade alongside shares.

Across the Atlantic, the EU’s evolving rules on crypto markets will influence where companies choose to list and how they structure products. The U.K. is also courting listings but will require strong custody and anti-money-laundering controls. Any major enforcement action or an adverse classification of token-linked instruments will raise costs and narrow the buyer base.

In short: a friendly regulatory nudge could unlock broad institutional demand. A clampdown or legal ambiguity will keep liquidity thin and push valuations down.

Three plausible 2026 scenarios — and how investors can think about them

Scenario A — Adoption and normalization: Regulators issue clear guidance, market makers commit capital, and a few clean IPOs show steady revenue growth. Result: widened investor base, tighter spreads, and selective winners. Positioning: overweight high-quality infrastructure names and underweight token-linked plays.

Scenario B — Regulatory squeeze: A string of enforcement actions or adverse rulings ties tokens to securities in problematic ways. Result: capital flees and several listings trade down sharply. Positioning: hedge exposure with options, shorten weak floaters, and favor cash flow-positive names with low token exposure.

Scenario C — Muted, uneven market: Rules and liquidity improve slowly. Some names thrive, most remain volatile. Result: a bifurcated market where active selection matters. Positioning: concentrate on winners, use smaller size and stop-loss discipline, and hold a cash buffer to buy confirmed strength after lockup windows pass.

Concrete watchpoints and the next moves for investors

Keep these items on your short list in 2026: the IPO calendar for companies with token ties, scheduled lockup expiries and token release dates, high-profile SEC decisions or enforcement actions, market-maker commitment announcements, and quarterly earnings that reveal how much revenue comes from non-token services.

Follow tradeable signals: narrowing spreads, rising average daily volume, and management commentary that separates token economics from corporate cash flow. Those are the clearest signs a listing is becoming investible at scale.

Bottom line: 2025 showed there is interest. 2026 will show whether crypto IPOs can become routine investments or remain fringe, high-risk bets. Investors who prepare for both the upside and the regulatory downsides will be the ones who can act fast when the market picks a direction.

Sources

• coindesk.com