Six ways media will look different in 2026 — and what it means for investors

Fresh predictions, one clear split: steady subscription focus with a wild card

Sixteen anonymous media executives shared short, sharp predictions about where the industry will be in 2026. Most painted a familiar picture: subscriptions will still matter, ads will slowly regain strength, and technologies like AI will change how content is made and distributed. A smaller group offered an outlier view — expecting a rapid wave of consolidation and major platform-led bundling that reshapes how consumers pay for video and news.

For investors, the headline is simple. The majority of these leaders expect gradual, structural shifts rather than a sudden industry pivot. That means most public media companies face steady margin pressure from content costs and churn, even as ad revenue recovers. The outlier scenario — fast consolidation and platform bundling — would be a big win for a few tech platforms and a clear risk for some legacy media owners.

Four repeating themes from the predictions

Across the 16 comments, four themes came up again and again.

1) Subscription grind. Nearly two-thirds of the executives argued subscriptions remain the blunt instrument for revenue, but growth is harder and more expensive. The consensus: retention and pricing will matter more than adding new users.

2) Ad recovery, but not a boom. About half the leaders expect ad markets to slowly rebound, driven by stronger demand for video inventory and improved measurement. Still, many warned that ad unit price growth will lag pre-pandemic highs and that CPM volatility remains a constraint.

3) AI as an efficiency and creative force. Most execs expected AI to lower routine costs — for subtitling, metadata, and rough cuts — and to speed content testing. A minority foresaw AI enabling cheaper, highly personalized content that could reduce overall content spend but disrupt traditional talent and production economics.

4) M&A and bundling tension. Views split here. Roughly a third saw steady consolidation among mid-sized players and private-equity deals. A smaller but vocal group predicted a platform-driven bundling push — either by big tech or by cable/streaming incumbents — that would force volume playbooks and change customer lifetime value math.

There were smaller, diverging notes: some execs flagged regulatory risk around ads and data, while others worried about brand fatigue and subscription overload among consumers.

How these trends could move public media stocks and margins

Translate those themes into numbers and you get a business story that depends on which revenue line matters most to each company.

Streaming platforms that rely heavily on subscription revenue will likely see slower top-line growth and continued pressure on margins as content costs stay high. That’s a clear risk for companies where streaming is the growth engine: Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Comcast (CMCSA) — though the latter combines streaming with a still-valuable cable and broadband business.

Ad-driven businesses — broadcasters, ad tech, and digital publishers — stand to benefit from a gradual ad rebound. Companies with strong programmatic stacks and measurement tools, like The Trade Desk (TTD) and Alphabet (GOOGL), are positioned to capture rising demand for targeted video ads. But renewed demand won’t fully offset price pressure unless measurement and brand safety improve significantly.

If AI reduces production and distribution costs as many execs expect, the upside flows to platforms that can scale content cheaply and control distribution. That favors Amazon (AMZN) and Roku (ROKU), which pair distribution with data insights. Legacy publishers like The New York Times (NYT) or News Corp (NWSA) face more mixed outcomes: subscription-focused publishers could benefit from lower churn if they keep reader trust, but commodity publishers may struggle.

M&A or bundling shocks would create large winner-take-most moves. A bundling push led by a tech giant would likely lift the multiples of platform owners and pressure standalone networks and publishers, reducing the value of niche streaming bets.

Companies and sectors most exposed — and why

Winners if trends play out: Amazon (AMZN) — its cross-subsidy model and ad business make it well placed if bundling and ad recovery accelerate. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (META) — both benefit from ad tech improvements and richer measurement.

At-risk or mixed: Disney (DIS) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — both face the high cost of premium content and tough subscriber economics. Netflix (NFLX) — still a leader but exposed to slowing subscriber growth and competition for hit content. Paramount Global (PARA) and legacy publishers like News Corp (NWSA) — vulnerable to ad volatility and a structurally lower-value streaming landscape.

Ad-tech and measurement plays: The Trade Desk (TTD) looks positioned to profit if programmatic video demand rises and measurement improves. Roku (ROKU) benefits from being a neutral distribution layer with ad monetization upside.

Three scenarios for 2026 and the valuation logic behind them

Base case (most likely): Slow, steady. Subscriptions plateau, ad revenue recovers gradually, and AI trims some costs. Valuations compress modestly for heavy content spenders; ad-tech multiples expand slightly. Key assumptions: steady macro growth and no major regulatory shock.

Upside surprise: Platform bundling and ad boom. A few tech platforms push large-scale bundles or exclusive ad deals, creating a faster reallocation of consumer spend and sharp ad demand. Winners see premium multiples; losers — smaller, single-revenue media owners — face multiple compression. This requires rapid consumer acceptance of bundles and strong advertiser confidence.

Downside risk: Subscription fatigue meets ad softness. If consumer resistance to new services grows and advertisers pull back, revenue pools shrink while content spend stays elevated. Valuations fall for streaming-first names and for publishers dependent on ad cycles. This hinges on a weaker ad market or faster-than-expected churn.

Investor checklist: the numbers and dates that will move prices

KPIs to watch closely: ARPU and churn for streaming services; ad CPMs and fill rates for ad businesses; subscriber adds and churn rates on earnings calls; content spend guidance; and gross margin trends. For ad-tech players, watch programmatic video growth and measurement partnerships.

Near-term catalysts: earnings releases through mid-2025 that update subscriber and ad guidance, any major platform bundling announcements, regulatory moves on ad targeting or data use, and big M&A whispers among mid-sized networks. Watch management language on AI-driven cost savings — vague promises without clear numbers will not move markets as much as specific targets for content cost reduction.

Bottom line: most executives see change arriving in pieces, not a single leap. For investors that means opportunities tied to clear, measurable turnarounds — ad strength, lower churn or real content-cost cuts — and risks where those metrics fail to improve.