MWC 2026: Open RAN Meets AI — Live Networks, New Winners, and the Road to Open 6G

Summit snapshot: why this year felt different for Open RAN

At the O-RAN Alliance summit inside MWC Barcelona, the talk shifted from pilots to production. Operators described real traffic moving through open RAN sites and vendors demoed AI tools running live on network slices. The mood was pragmatic: Open RAN is not a magic doorway to lower costs overnight, but it now looks like a realistic path for modernization—if operators can clear software complexity and integration risk.

How operators are rolling out Open RAN today — what’s actually live and what’s next

Several carriers spoke about incremental, targeted deployments rather than wholesale swaps. The most common pattern is to convert selected urban and suburban cell clusters to Open RAN, or to deploy it at rural aggregation points where cost savings and vendor diversity matter most.

Operators are leaning on a small set of strategies. First, hybrid RAN: running Open RAN alongside traditional vendor equipment so traffic can be balanced and performance compared in real conditions. Second, staged automation: introducing AI-powered xApps and rApps that handle specific tasks—like traffic steering or energy savings—before turning on broader orchestration. Third, vendor diversity with integration partners to manage complexity.

Timelines are conservative. Expect gradual scale-up over two to five years in large markets, with faster rollouts in greenfield or smaller markets. Live-network experience is showing real gains in flexibility and, in some cases, lower swap costs. But operators repeatedly stressed that savings depend on software maturity, integration costs and supplier roadmaps.

Market implications: who looks positioned to gain and who faces risk

The shift from pilots to production is a clear signal to investors: suppliers that can deliver systems-integration, managed services and robust software stacks will win more business than companies that only offer radio units. Traditional vendors that embrace modular, open interfaces can protect share; those that resist may lose opportunities in new greenfield builds and replacement cycles.

Names to watch: large infrastructure players that have publicly committed to Open RAN standards and end-to-end service models are better placed. At the same time, smaller, software-first firms and systems integrators that offer proven orchestration and AI toolkits can punch above their weight if they secure operator partnerships. Semiconductor companies and cloud providers that supply the compute and AI accelerators for real-time network functions also stand to gain.

Investors should see this as a market rebalancing: hardware dollar content may compress in some places, while software, services and compute will grow. That implies different margin profiles and valuation metrics for winners. It also raises the prospect of M&A and partnership activity as larger players buy software capabilities or as operators consolidate suppliers to reduce integration headaches.

AI-driven automation: how xApps, rApps and autonomy translate to revenue

The summit made clear that AI is the practical hook that makes Open RAN sellable. xApps and rApps—small, focused applications for the RAN control layers—are how intelligence is being introduced without touching physical radios. Demonstrations showed AI models dynamically optimising handovers, balancing loads, and reducing energy consumption in live slices.

From an investor perspective, the path to monetisable services is predictable: prove a reliability gain or OPEX saving on a subset of sites, then expand that feature across an operator’s estate. The biggest commercial wins will come from AI bundles that are easy to deploy and that show month-over-month cost reductions or measurable quality gains for premium customers. The technical lift is significant—real-time inference, low-latency telemetry and closed-loop control—but once solved, the business model resembles SaaS plus managed services.

That means software vendors and companies supplying edge compute and AI accelerators capture recurring revenue. Companies that only sell radios without a clear software strategy risk being squeezed on price and see longer sales cycles.

Aligning on 6G: standards, policy and the O-RAN Alliance’s growing influence

Speakers pointed out that work on 6G is moving from research labs into standards discussions with the explicit goal of making future systems open and intelligent by design. Regulators are watching and, in some regions, pushing for vendor diversity and clearer security certification paths.

The O-RAN Alliance is positioning itself as a practical bridge between carriers, vendors and standards bodies. If it succeeds in baking openness into 6G specs, the next generation could arrive with fewer integration frictions—and larger addressable markets for software and AI services. But that outcome hinges on sustained operator buy-in and clear security models that satisfy policymakers.

What investors should watch next: catalysts, timelines and key risks

Near-term catalysts: operator procurement awards for multi-year Open RAN contracts, public disclosures of cost or performance improvements from live sites, and high-profile partnerships between software integrators and large infra vendors. Medium term, watch edge-compute deployments and the emergence of subscription AI offerings for network functions.

Valuation drivers will shift toward recurring software revenues, service margins, and the ability to scale AI models across operators. Risks are integration costs, slow operator adoption in major markets, and potential vendor consolidation that edges out smaller players. Regulatory headwinds or security incidents could also reset timelines.

For investors, the practical metric is not whether Open RAN is technically superior, but which firms can convert technical wins into predictable, contractable cash flow.

Bottom line: where Open RAN + AI create investor opportunity—and where they don’t yet

MWC 2026 made one thing clear: Open RAN backed by practical AI is moving from demos to real networks. That creates opportunity for vendors that can sell repeatable software and managed services, and for suppliers of edge compute and AI chips. It is less kind to firms that rely solely on radio hardware without a clear software or integration play. The winning investment themes are software-led revenue streams, integration expertise, and partners that can scale operator deployments while keeping performance predictable.

Sources

• prnewswire.com