Most Days Were Winners: Why short-term Bitcoin traders made money in 2025 — and what will matter in 2026

229 winning sessions, a big pullback, and why that matters

Short-term Bitcoin traders finished 2025 with a surprisingly steady edge: roughly 229 profitable days — about two-thirds of the year — even though the market suffered a sharp mid-year correction of about 30% from peak to trough. That mix of frequent wins and a meaningful correction matters because it tells us the market was offering tradeable moves often enough for nimble players to book gains, even while major swings tested longer-term holders.

Before you read on: the headline number hides variation. Different data providers define “short-term” differently — some mean intraday trades, some include positions closed inside a week — and the universe used for the count can range from spot order books on major exchanges to derivatives P&L aggregated across margin venues. The core inputs behind the figure are exchange trade data, derivatives stats (funding rates, open interest), and on-chain flows; independent analytics firms and exchange data feeds drove the tally. Those caveats matter because the takeaway — that active trading paid in 2025 — holds in spirit, but not every trader experienced the same hit rate.

Why 2025 rewarded short-term players: volatility, flows and institutional change

Three big forces shaped the trading year.

First, realized volatility stayed elevated for large parts of 2025. Higher day-to-day price swings give short-term traders the raw opportunity to capture quick moves. Even when the market trend was sideways or slowly up, intraday ranges expanded enough for scalpers and momentum traders to profit.

Second, liquidity and flow patterns shifted. The mid-year 30% correction briefly thinned order books on many venues, creating spikes in realized volatility as stop cascades and liquidity gaps widened. At the same time, spot ETF launches and movements of institutional custody altered the balance between retail and institutional liquidity. Where regulated custody flows into ETFs were steady, spot depth improved; where flows stalled, derivatives markets did more of the price discovery.

Third, derivatives conditions amplified opportunities. Funding rates, concentrated open interest, and options-gamma dynamics all created recurring setups. For stretches in H2, Bitcoin looked less tethered to equities — a partial decoupling — which meant crypto-specific news and flows, rather than macro headlines, often drove big intraday moves.

Regulation and institutional adoption nudged this picture, too. Several custody and regulatory developments in 2025 eased barriers for larger pools of capital to enter or exit via regulated channels. That shifted where liquidity lived and how quickly big flows showed up in prices.

How traders converted volatility into gains: strategies and risk controls

Short-term players used a handful of repeatable approaches.

Scalping and market making: Traders profited from wider bid-ask spreads during bursts of intraday activity, capturing small, frequent wins. Successful market makers tightened spreads when order books normalized and pulled back during sudden liquidity drains.

Swing and breakout trades: When ranges broke after news or liquidity shifts, traders who timed entries and exits over several days captured the larger trending legs that followed the 30% correction and other moves.

Funding-rate and basis plays: Arbitrage strategies that harvested positive funding or played the spot-futures basis delivered steady income during certain regimes. These trades do well when funding is persistently skewed and risk controls limit large directional exposure.

Options and gamma: Options sellers and gamma scalpers profited when realized volatility stayed above the levels implied by option prices — or when dealers’ hedging created predictable patterns intra-day.

What successful traders tracked closely: realized volatility (to size positions), bid-ask spreads and book depth (to choose venues and size), funding rates and open interest (to judge derivatives crowding), and option skews (to pick gamma regimes). Common risk rules were strict position caps, dynamic leverage limits tied to realized vol, and pre-set stop frameworks to avoid the cascade risk when order books thin.

Signals to watch heading into 2026: the data that will matter for profits

If you want to know whether short-term profits will rise in 2026, watch these series closely.

• Realized vs. implied volatility: Chart both on a daily basis. If realized stays above implied, short-term directional and volatility-selling strategies can win more often.
• Funding rates and concentrated open interest: Rising, one-sided funding and crowded open interest raise the chance of violent unwind events traders can exploit — or get crushed by. Track per-exchange funding and total global open interest.
• Spot ETF flows and custody movements: Net inflows into regulated products deepen spot liquidity and can dampen derivatives dislocations. Large custody outflows can thin liquidity and spike intraday ranges.
• Order-book depth and bid-ask spreads: These tell you where execution risk sits. Shallow books plus wider spreads equals higher slippage and larger tail risk.
• Correlation with equities and macro calendar: Higher decoupling from stocks means crypto-specific volatility dominates; stronger correlation links trader outcomes to macro surprises such as rate decisions.
• On-chain exchange flows: Net exchange inflows often precede price pressure; net outflows typically remove liquidity. Monitor exchange balance aggregates and large wallet movements.

Charts that matter: a realized vs implied volatility chart, a heatmap of funding rates across venues, a plot of daily ETF/custody flows, and an order-book depth series. Reliable data providers include major exchange APIs for order books, derivatives venue feeds for funding and open interest, and independent on-chain analytics firms for flow data.

2026 scenarios: when trader profits could rise — and when they could fall

Three plausible paths matter for short-term traders.

Bullish & volatile: Continued institutional adoption with intermittent macro shocks keeps realized vol high but order-book depth reasonable. That’s the best case for short-term traders — frequent setups, manageable slippage.

Range-bound with thin liquidity: Spot price grinds without trend while liquidity concentrates in a few venues or custody pools. This can be frustrating: fewer big moves and higher execution risk make it harder to turn small edges into reliable profit.

Prolonged downturn or regulatory shock: A sharp, broad-based sell-off or surprise regulatory action can wipe out crowded strategies and create liquidity freezes. In that case, even experienced traders can face outsized losses due to slippage and forced unwinds.

Practical execution priorities if you trade short term: keep position sizes modest relative to visible book depth, cap leverage to levels you can survive through 2–3x realized-vol spikes, diversify execution across venues, and prefer venues with deep spot and derivatives liquidity when you need to exit quickly. Above all, respect that structural shifts — new custody rules, venue outages, or sudden policy moves — can change the market overnight.

Bottom line: 2025 showed that active traders could find profits much of the time thanks to higher volatility and shifting liquidity. Whether that edge grows in 2026 depends on a few clear signals — volatility regimes, funding dynamics, and where big custody flows land. Traders who watch those indicators closely and keep tight risk controls will be best placed to turn future noise into gains.

Sources

• cointelegraph.com
• cointelegraph.com
• cointelegraph.com
• cointelegraph.com