Crypto.com Teams with ERShares and Signal Markets to Turn Prediction Markets into tradable intelligence for crypto traders

Fast take: a new source of market signals aimed squarely at traders

Crypto.com announced a partnership with ERShares and Signal Markets to build a global prediction-market intelligence platform. The pitch is simple: turn collective bets on real-world and crypto events into a steady feed of trading signals and data products that professional and retail traders can use. For active crypto and derivatives traders this is not just another data feed — it is a potential new venue that could change how odds, probability and sentiment show up in prices.

The announcement landed as a clear bid to bridge prediction markets and mainstream trading infrastructure. On the surface it looks like a distribution play: Crypto.com brings reach and on-ramps; the other partners provide the market engine and analytics. For traders, the immediate angle is obvious — a live feed of market-implied probabilities could be slotted into quant models, delta-hedging systems, and event-driven option strategies.

What the product will do and who does what

The platform will combine three things: a prediction-market mechanic where users place stakes on outcomes, an analytics layer that turns those stakes into probability curves, and distribution tools that push those curves into trading desks and retail apps. The press announcement frames it as both a market where people bet and a data product where those bets are turned into intelligence.

Crypto.com is positioning itself as the distribution and user-facing partner. That likely means wallet and custody options, onboarding of users, and pushing the data into its trading app and institutional desk. ERShares and Signal Markets are described as the technology and market partners; one will run the market mechanics and liquidity architecture, the other will feed analytics, signals and possibly market-making services.

Technically, the platform looks like a hybrid. It blends on-chain settlement and record-keeping with off-chain engines that aggregate orders, manage limits and compute real-time probabilities. That hybrid design aims to keep the speed and reliability traders need while preserving transparency on outcomes and settlement for event markets.

Why traders and derivatives desks should pay attention

Prediction markets are fast ways to see what a crowd expects. Importing those odds into the trading stack could change several things at once. First, event probabilities can be used as direct inputs into options pricing and volatility forecasts. If the platform signals a sudden surge in the chance of a major exchange outage or a protocol hard fork, options traders will reprice short-dated volatility quickly.

Second, a liquid prediction market becomes a tradable instrument itself. That creates opportunities for spreads, arbitrage between futures and event contracts, and the design of new structured products that pay out based on event outcomes. Market makers could build delta-neutral hedges that use prediction contracts to offset event risk, which would pull more flow into both markets.

Third, the visible market prices become a new source of cross-asset signals. Hedge funds and prop desks can combine prediction probabilities with order-flow metrics to find asymmetric trades. That raises the chance that a popular event market will influence funding rates, basis, and implied vol on related token options.

Regulatory hurdles: what matters and what to watch

Prediction markets sit in a tricky regulatory spot. The US regulator that watches derivatives and event contracts has made clear that certain event contracts are within its remit. For any platform hoping to serve US users or institutional desks, a CFTC-friendly structure or registration is a practical necessity.

That means the timeline and adoption depend on how the partners handle compliance: will they limit certain event types for US customers, use cleared or regulated wrappers, or seek direct approvals? Each choice changes how attractive the product is to big desks. A fully regulated offering will open institutional flows but will take longer to launch and cost more to run. A lightly regulated, crypto-native version will attract retail and nimble pros faster, but will face legal risk and likely restricted access in some jurisdictions.

Where this fits against Polymarket, Kalshi and the rest

Polymarket, Kalshi and decentralized platforms like Augur have already shown the demand for event-driven markets. Kalshi took a regulatory route and built CFTC-cleared event contracts aimed at professional users. Polymarket gained traction for crypto-native markets but faced regulatory scrutiny at times. Augur and similar decentralised projects emphasize censorship resistance and on-chain settlement.

What sets this new partnership apart is distribution through a major trading platform and an explicit focus on turning market odds into commercial data products. If Crypto.com can supply user flow and ERShares/Signal Markets can provide reliable liquidity and analytics, this offering could scale faster than pure-decentralized rivals — provided it navigates compliance carefully.

Key risks, milestones and what traders should watch next

Near-term catalysts to monitor: the platform’s beta launch, which markets are live first, any public statements about CFTC or other regulator engagement, and early volume and open interest numbers. Those will tell you whether the product is fetching serious money or staying a curiosity.

Main risks are legal exposure, oracle and manipulation vulnerabilities, and thin liquidity early on. Prediction markets are target-rich for manipulation if a small group can swing prices with large bets; that undermines signal quality. Smart-contract bugs or weak settlement rules would be another existential risk.

For investors and traders, the likely outcomes run from a useful new feed that pushes volatility and event pricing faster into spot and derivatives, to a niche product confined by regulation and low liquidity. My read: this is a promising institutionalization of prediction-market signals, but adoption will hinge on concrete regulatory moves and the platform’s ability to deliver deep, honest liquidity. If both happen, expect it to reshape short-dated event trades and spark new derivatives strategies within 6–18 months.

Sources

• prnewswire.com