Credence Forecast Sees Hydrogen Power Moving Into Heavy Machinery — What Investors Should Watch

A big forecast, and why it matters now

Credence Research says the market for hydrogen-powered heavy machinery will reach about USD 25.6 billion by 2032. That is a big jump from today’s tiny base, and the simple story is this: companies that make big off-road equipment — think mining trucks, excavators and port cranes — are being pushed to cut emissions, and hydrogen is one of the few ways to do that while keeping machines running long hours without long recharges.

The immediate news angle is not just the headline number. It’s that the forecast assumes a rapid move from pilot projects to early commercial fleets. For investors, the key question is whether that transition can happen fast enough to make revenues meaningful before competitors and cheaper battery solutions eat into the market.

What’s pushing the demand: policy, tech and operating needs

Three forces are pulling heavy machinery toward hydrogen.

First, regulation and corporate targets. Governments in Europe, parts of Asia and some U.S. states are tightening rules on industrial emissions. Mining and construction firms face pressure from regulators and big customers to lower carbon footprints, and hydrogen is an attractive option because it can deliver a lot of energy without on-site CO2.

Second, the technology mix is maturing. Fuel-cell systems and hydrogen engines are progressing from demo units to heavier-duty models. Companies making fuel cells and turnkey hydrogen systems are improving power density and durability, which matters a lot in hard-use applications like mining.

Third, operational realities favor hydrogen for some heavy uses. Battery-electric trucks work well for short, predictable routes, but heavy machinery often runs long shifts, needs fast refuels, and operates in remote sites where building huge fast-charging infrastructure is expensive. Hydrogen can be refuelled quickly and can carry more energy per weight than current batteries for very large equipment.

How the market splits: applications, hydrogen types and where growth could be strongest

Application breakdown looks familiar: mining and quarrying, construction, ports and material handling are likely to take early share. Mining is especially promising. Fleets are centrally managed, work in circumscribed areas, and operators are used to paying a premium for high uptime — making pilots easier to justify.

Hydrogen type matters. The real prize for decarbonisation is green hydrogen — made from renewables and electrolysis — but the near-term roll-out will probably rely on a mix of blue hydrogen (with carbon capture) and low-carbon supply chains until electrolyzer capacity scales and costs fall.

Regionally, Europe is likely to be an early leader thanks to strict emissions rules and strong funding support. Asia-Pacific follows closely because of large mining sectors and active industrial policy in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. North America will be competitive but uneven: some states and provinces will move fast, while others lag.

Winners, losers and the investment angle

Winners are likely to split into several groups. Heavy-equipment OEMs that adapt early — such as Caterpillar (CAT) — could protect their market position by offering hydrogen options. Engine and fuel-cell specialists like Cummins (CMI), which has been active in hydrogen technologies, could become key suppliers. Fuel-cell companies such as Plug Power (PLUG), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) and FuelCell Energy (FCEL) might gain from component sales and system integration work, though their fortunes depend on scaling and margins.

Hydrogen producers and gas majors with electrolyzer plans, and industrial gas companies that handle distribution and refuelling, stand to gain as the ecosystem grows. Linde (LIN) and Air Products (APD) are examples of established players positioned to profit from supply and logistics rather than equipment manufacturing.

That said, the picture is mixed. OEMs that move too slowly risk losing share to rivals that offer hydrogen options. Pure-play fuel-cell names often trade with high expectations already priced in; if growth disappoints or cost reductions take longer than expected, those stocks can be volatile. Companies focused only on hydrogen without a clear path to durable margins look risky here.

Near-term milestones that will prove whether the forecast is realistic

Watch for a handful of tangible signs over the next three years. First, commercial pilot fleets in mining and ports that move from single units to multi-machine deployments. A handful of multi-unit contracts will show the economics are starting to work.

Second, announcements of electrolyzer capacity and green-hydrogen supply deals tied to industrial projects. Investors should pay close attention to pricing terms and delivery timelines — those reveal whether green hydrogen is reaching the level where it can compete on cost.

Third, OEM product launches and formal supply agreements. When a major OEM publicly commits to a hydrogen model with firm production timelines and customer orders, it moves the market from R&D to revenue recognition.

How the report was likely built — and the main caveats

Credence Research is a market research firm that typically combines public filings, company announcements and supply-chain interviews to model demand under different scenarios. Forecasts like this usually depend heavily on policy support, cost curves for electrolysers and fuel cells, and assumed adoption timelines for fleets.

The main caveats are clear: if green hydrogen costs don’t fall as expected, if battery technology solves long-duration needs faster than predicted, or if capital and permitting barriers slow infrastructure build-out, the ramp will be weaker. Conversely, stronger carbon pricing, bigger subsidies, or a faster drop in electrolysis costs would make the upside case much stronger.

For investors, the right mindset is to treat this as a plausible long-term growth story that will play out in fits and starts. Some stocks and parts of the supply chain look positioned to benefit; others are speculative until order books and production timelines move from press releases to real cash flow.

Photo: Lukas / Pexels

Sources

• prnewswire.com