After a brutal slide, TON finds a fragile floor — traders weigh whether this is a real bottom or a pause in the bleeding

Sharp losses, a clear line in the sand: why $1.6025 matters

TON’s price has sunk roughly 72% so far this year, and that straight-line drop matters to anyone who owns the token or watches crypto risk. The price recently found a clear support level at $1.6025. Intraday action around that mark has been choppy — a couple of attempts to push lower were met with buying, and rallies have been stopped well short of the highs that existed before the sell-off.

Why this moment matters: traders see that $1.6025 as a simple test. If it holds, the market can try to base and negotiate higher ground. If it breaks, the path lower could be fast because many stop orders are clustered just under key supports and liquidity is thin. For holders, a sustained break would likely mean more pain; for short-term traders, a bounce off this level could offer a clear, defined trade with tight risk controls.

Chart clues: mixed technicals point to a possible bottom, but confirmation is required

From a chart point of view, the raw picture is still bearish: the medium-term moving average sits above the current price and the long-term average remains well higher, so the default bias is down. Price action over recent weeks, though, has started to show some classic early signs of a potential turn.

First, momentum indicators such as RSI have moved from deeply oversold into a less extreme zone without the price making new lows — that’s a type of bullish divergence. It means sellers are tiring even while price was still nudging lower. Second, volume on down-days has been higher than on recent up-days overall, but the most recent down candle on the support test came with noticeably less volume than prior declines — another small green flag that selling pressure may be diminishing.

On-balance volume (OBV) has been tracking lower with price, but it shows a slight uptick in the past few sessions; traders often watch OBV for clues that money flow is slowly returning. The volume profile around the current range shows a concentration of traded volume near $1.60 to $2.40 — meaning this is where buyers and sellers are actively negotiating price.

Key decisive levels: the immediate support is $1.6025. A clean break below that on strong volume would invalidate the tentative base and likely lead to another leg down. To claim a real technical reversal, TON needs to push and hold above the short-term moving average and follow through past the $2.40–$2.80 area, ideally on rising volume. Until we see that, any rally looks like a bounce within a larger downtrend rather than a confirmed trend change.

Big-picture drivers: how ETP approvals and crypto flows could tilt TON’s path

TON doesn’t move in a vacuum. Larger market flows and regulatory cues are powerful amplifiers. The recent regulatory backdrop — including the U.S. greenlighting of another crypto index ETP — has nudged money back into risk-on crypto instruments. That kind of approval tends to lift major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum first, and those rises can trickle down to smaller tokens if traders use profits to chase higher-beta plays.

Liquidity is the other big macro lever. When BTC or ETH trend higher and inflows into crypto funds pick up, shallow-market tokens such as TON often see sharper percentage gains. Conversely, when BTC stumbles or fund inflows slow, tokens with lower exchange liquidity can gap down quickly as orders dry up.

Regulatory headlines remain a wildcard. Positive rulings or clearer rules can coax buyers back. An unexpected enforcement action or an unfriendly policy move anywhere major investors trade can trigger a quick retreat — and tokens off their highs, like TON, are particularly vulnerable to outsized moves on negative news.

On-chain checks: user activity and liquidity tell a cautious story

On-chain fundamentals for TON are mixed. Active address counts and total transactions have not collapsed — there is steady protocol use — but they are far below the peaks seen during prior speculative runs. That steady, lower-level activity is better than a freefall in usage, but it doesn’t scream immediate recovery either.

Exchange liquidity matters most for traders. TON’s order books on major exchanges show thinner depth compared with large-cap tokens. That means incoming buy orders can move the market higher quickly, but selling pressure will also push price through shallow bids just as fast. Large-holder distribution looks somewhat concentrated: a handful of big wallets control material shares, which raises the odds that single large trades could swing price sharply.

Developer activity and protocol updates are modestly positive; ongoing work keeps the story alive, but there’s no recent breakthrough that would change valuation overnight. There are no major burn or staking mechanics right now that would choke supply meaningfully, so any rebound will likely be driven by demand returning rather than supply shrinking.

Practical watchlist: levels, scenarios and where to protect risk

Short-term traders: consider the $1.6025 support as a hard reference. A tight, tested long with a stop just below that level gives a clear risk point. Targets for a measured bounce are inside the $2.40–$2.80 band; if price clears that on volume, the next zone of interest is higher, where volume concentrated earlier.

Medium-term investors: a convincing break above the short-term moving average and a sustained push past $2.80 would change the story to constructive. Until then, the token remains a risky recovery bet with high reward potential but a high probability of further drawdown.

Bear case: a failure to hold $1.6025 on heavy selling would likely open a swift move lower because of thin liquidity and clustered stop orders. In that scenario, look for price behavior to confirm — strong volume on the break and no quick reclaim of the level.

Risk controls: keep position sizes small relative to portfolio, demand clear confirmation before adding size, and remember that regulatory news or major BTC/ETH moves can blow through technicals. For investors who want exposure but can’t stomach the swings, waiting for broader market stabilization and stronger on-chain trends is the safer path.

Bottom line: there are genuine signs that selling pressure is easing and traders can make defined, short-risk trades around $1.6025. But this is a fragile moment. For those looking for a durable recovery, wait for volume-backed confirmation above the $2.40–$2.80 area and clearer market-wide liquidity before turning bullish.

Photo: Tima Miroshnichenko / Pexels

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