A Turning Point for Bitcoin: Triangle Tightens — Will Rally to $100K or Slip Toward $75K?

Price snapshot: Bitcoin (BTC) sits near the triangle’s apex as traders eye $100K or $75K

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading roughly around $88,000, stuck inside a six-week symmetrical triangle that has squeezed volatility lower. That pattern has pulled price into a narrow range and set up a classic breakout trade: a decisive push above the top trendline would point higher, while a clean break below the bottom trendline would turn the tilt negative.

Immediate resistance sits just above current levels, near the upper trendline and a recent short-term ceiling. Immediate support is the lower edge of the triangle, with a deeper cushion from the area where buyers showed up earlier this quarter. If the triangle resolves upward, traders are watching the next reaction zone just above $100,000. If it resolves downward, the first serious target sits around $75,000. Both moves map to roughly the same magnitude — about a mid-teens percentage swing — and the market is primed to move once volume returns.

How the triangle maps to a roughly 15% measured move — MACD, volume and confirmation signals

A symmetrical triangle collects price by drawing two converging trendlines: one descending from recent highs, one rising from recent lows. The simple way traders turn the pattern into a target is by measuring the vertical distance between the trendlines at their widest point and projecting that distance from the point of breakout. In this case, that geometry implies a measured move of roughly 15% from the breakout level.

Put plainly: if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside from around today’s price, expect a move that would carry it toward the low six-figure area. If it breaks down, the same math points toward a mid-$70,000 target. That’s why the $100K versus $75K framing is so common — it’s the triangle’s arithmetic at work.

Confirmation matters. A one-day wick beyond a trendline is not enough. Traders want a daily close outside the pattern accompanied by a meaningful pickup in traded volume compared with the recent average. Volume signals whether the move is driven by fresh conviction or just a temporary imbalance.

Momentum indicators give extra context. MACD (a common momentum oscillator) can help: a bullish picture would be a MACD line crossing above its signal line while both sit above zero, or at least rising toward zero from negative territory. Bearish confirmation is the opposite: a MACD cross to the downside or a fresh divergence where price makes a new high but MACD does not. Relative strength readings and short-term moving averages add extra layers, but none replace the simple volume-plus-close rule for pattern confirmation.

Institutions and on-chain supply: who holds the extra BTC, and why it matters

On-chain and institutional flows have tightened the market’s supply picture. Public firms and custodial ETFs now control a meaningful chunk of circulating Bitcoin, reducing the free float available to speculators. Public-company treasuries and large holders on exchanges together hold well over a million coins when combined with ETF inventories — a scale that changes how large bids or sells move price.

That concentration means fewer coins need to change hands to move the market, which makes breakouts more explosive. It also raises the bar for deep pullbacks: if institutional buyers step in on weakness, they can mop up supply quickly and blunt a downward breakout. Conversely, if institutions reduce exposure or if ETF flows reverse, the same scarcity can amplify selling pressure.

Miners remain a wildcard. Their selling schedule and hash-price economics still affect available supply. When miners sell aggressively into a thin market, they can cause outsized downside. On the flipside, steady accumulation by institutions and long-term wallets supports higher levels.

Three plausible BTC paths and the key levels traders should monitor (informational)

1) Bull case — breakout and follow-through: Breaks above the upper trendline with a daily close and a sharp volume spike. Momentum indicators cross bullish. Target: about a mid-teens percentage gain, placing Bitcoin toward the low $100,000s in the near term. Key levels: upper trendline, then the $100K neighborhood as the first meaningful supply zone.

2) Bear case — breakdown and quick drop: Price slices below the lower trendline on rising sell volume, with MACD rolling over. Measured move points toward the mid-$70,000s. Key levels: lower trendline, short-term support band around the prior demand zone, then $75K as a focal point for stop liquidity.

3) Neutral / false breakout: Price briefly pierces a trendline, but fails to close with conviction and returns inside the triangle. Volume remains muted, and momentum is mixed. That scenario can lead to a choppy grind for several more sessions before a decisive move. Key levels here are the triangle boundaries and short-term swing highs and lows where liquidity clusters.

Watchlist for liquidity pools: round numbers (e.g., $90K, $100K), options expirations that concentrate open interest, and visible exchange order books where stop orders cluster below recent lows. Those are where sudden flows can accelerate a move.

Catalysts, risks and a practical timeline for the triangle’s resolution

What can flip the pattern? Macro headlines — interest-rate decisions, surprise inflation prints, or a major risk-off move in equities — can push Bitcoin decisively. Regulatory news or enforcement actions targeting major exchanges or stablecoins can also force abrupt repricing. Market-structure items like large ETF flows, exchange outages, or concentrated options expiries are shorter-term catalysts that often coincide with pattern resolutions.

Risks that could invalidate any read: thin holiday liquidity amplifying a fake breakout, sudden miner selling, or a shift in institutional flows. Positive surprise catalysts include renewed ETF inflows, a large corporate treasury buy, or on-chain metrics showing resumed accumulation by long-term holders.

Timeline: with six weeks already compressed into a tightening triangle, the pattern usually resolves within days to a couple of weeks as it approaches the apex. Traders should watch for volume and daily closes as the immediate confirmation signals that a new trend is likely starting.

The next few sessions are likely to be decisive. Whether Bitcoin climbs toward $100K or retraces toward $75K will depend less on clever calls and more on whether buyers or sellers can produce conviction through volume and sustained closes outside the pattern.

Sources

• x.com
• cryptopotato.com
• youtube.com
• cryptopotato.com