A Tiny Ingredient, Big Risk: Report Says Key Vaccine Adjuvants Could See Shortages — Urgent Action Needed

TAG flags shortfalls in specific adjuvants and urges immediate steps

A new report from Treatment Action Group (TAG) warns that supply of a handful of vaccine adjuvants — the ingredients that boost a vaccine’s immune effect — could tighten sharply unless action begins now. TAG identifies squalene-based adjuvants used in some influenza and pandemic vaccines and a small set of proprietary adjuvants used by a few manufacturers as most at risk. The report projects pressure on supply within the next 12–24 months and calls on governments, global funders and manufacturers to move immediately to diversify sources, fund scale-up and create buffer stocks.

Why a shortage of one component would ripple through global vaccination plans

Adjuvants are usually a small part of a vaccine by weight, but they matter a lot. They let manufacturers use less antigen per dose, stretch vaccine output and improve immune responses in older adults and children. If supplies of a widely used adjuvant run short, vaccine makers may have to cut production, delay campaigns or shift to formulations that are less effective for certain groups.

TAG explains that the most affected vaccines would include seasonal and pandemic influenza shots and several newer vaccines that rely on specific adjuvant technologies. That means high-risk groups — older adults, people with chronic illness, and populations in low- and middle-income countries — could face weaker protection or delayed access. Public-health goals such as immunisation targets and planned outbreak responses could be harder to meet, especially in places that depend on pooled procurement through agencies like Gavi and the UN.

Where the supply chain is fragile: makers, raw materials and regulatory chokepoints

The report lays out a straightforward problem: a small number of suppliers make most of the globally traded adjuvant capacity, and some critical inputs come from even more concentrated sources. For example, several squalene-based adjuvants trace their raw material to a handful of producers. Other proprietary adjuvants are made by only one or two manufacturers with specialised know-how and single production sites.

TAG highlights several failure points. First, raw-material sourcing is narrow and, in some cases, tied to ecological or trade constraints. Second, the specialised manufacturing steps for adjuvants — purification, formulation and sterile handling — are capital- and time-intensive, so new capacity takes months to bring online. Third, regulatory approval for adjuvant changes or new suppliers can be slow if companies and regulators do not prepare in advance. Finally, commercial incentives are weak: adjuvant production earns modest margins, so private firms have little spur to invest without demand guarantees.

TAG’s roadmap: funding, manufacturing partnerships and policy fixes

TAG urges a set of near-term actions. The first is to fund the immediate expansion of existing manufacturers and to support technology transfer to credible new producers. The report recommends building strategic buffer stocks to cushion short-term shocks and setting clear advance purchase commitments to make investment attractive.

On policy, TAG calls for coordinated regulatory workstreams so new adjuvants or new suppliers can be reviewed quickly but safely. It also pushes for investment in alternative raw-material sources and in synthetic or plant-based options where feasible. The report provides timelines suggesting that mobilised funding and fast-track tech transfer could yield meaningful new capacity in roughly six to 18 months, depending on the adjuvant and regulatory pathway, and it notes that the investment scale is modest relative to global vaccine budgets — in the tens to low hundreds of millions of dollars range for the most urgent fixes.

What investors and markets should watch next

For investors, the story is about concentrated supply, contract flows and procurement shifts. Publicly traded vaccine makers and adjuvant developers that appear in the report — for example established vaccine groups such as GSK (GSK), companies with proprietary adjuvants like Dynavax (DVAX) and small firms focused on novel adjuvant technologies — could see changes in demand or negotiating leverage. Contract manufacturers and suppliers offering synthetic or plant-derived alternatives could become sought after.

Procurement flows matter. If Gavi, WHO or major governments begin advance purchase commitments or fund tech transfers, money could move into contract manufacturers and niche adjuvant suppliers quickly. Conversely, vaccine producers that are heavily dependent on a single adjuvant supplier could face production risk that affects deliveries and public contracts. Monitor announcements of funded scale-ups, procurement agreements and regulatory fast-tracks as signals that the market is responding.

Next steps: meetings, decisions and scenarios to follow

The near-term milestones will be political and procedural: donor decisions on funding, procurement commitments from large buyers, tech-transfer agreements between established and new manufacturers, and regulatory guidance on expedited reviews. TAG expects several meetings of global health funders and agencies in the coming months; those sessions will show whether the issue gets the financial and policy muscle it needs.

There are two clear scenarios. In the optimistic path, funders mobilise money quickly, manufacturers add capacity, regulators coordinate and shortages are avoided within a year. In a prolonged-shortage path, slow funding, commercial hesitation and regulatory delays mean pressure on vaccine production that could stretch into the next two years, with knock-on effects for campaigns and risk of localized outbreaks.

The full TAG report lays out technical details, recommended funding levels and suggested timelines. Readers can find the report on TAG’s website and should watch announcements from major global funders, manufacturers and procurement agencies in the coming weeks to see if the warning turns into action.

Sources

• prnewswire.com